168
FXUS66 KSGX 271002
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
302 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooling will spread inland into the weekend with high temperatures
on Sunday around 10 to 15 degrees below average for inland areas.
Chances for showers will begin increasing on Friday and be
highest during the weekend. There remains a fairly wide spread in
potential rainfall with around a 50 percent chance of 0.50 inch or
less from the coast to the mountains with a 15 to 20 percent
chance for 2 inches or more. Tides will remain elevated through
much of this week with near record water levels resulting in
coastal flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
High temperatures will cool a few degrees per day for today
through Thursday with high temperatures a few to around 5 degrees
below average. High temperatures on Thursday for the coast and
valleys will be mostly in the lower to mid 70s, for the mountains
in the mid 40s to mid 60s, and for the lower deserts in the lower
to mid 80s.

Patchy low clouds will return to coastal areas this morning with
increased coverage and greater inland spread into the western
valleys for tonight into Wednesday morning. There will be
increasing high clouds for Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
The cooling trend will continue into the weekend with high
temperatures on Sunday 10 to 15 degrees below average for inland
areas and 15 to 20 degrees below average for the mountains above
6000 feet. High temperatures on Sunday for the coast and valleys
will be mostly in the 60s, for the mountains in the mid 30s to mid
50s, and for the lower deserts in the lower to mid 70s.

Rainfall chances during the weekend are greatest for Saturday
night into Sunday morning and especially for late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. There remains a wide range in potential
rainfall. ECMWF ensemble uncalibrated rainfall for San Diego has
40 percent of members with 0.50 inch or less with 15 percent of
ensemble members having 2 inches or more. Half of ECMWF ensemble
members have precipitable water at San Diego for late Saturday
afternoon and Saturday evening increasing to 1.5 inch or greater,
somewhere around 250 percent of normal.

For Saturday morning through Sunday night, the chance for 1 inch
or more of rainfall from the coast to the mountains ranges from 25
to 30 percent for Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties
to 35 to 40 percent for San Diego County.

&&

.AVIATION...
270530Z...Mostly clear and VFR conditions through Tuesday.
~10-30% chance for cigs tonight through 13Z with bases 900-1500
feet MSL. Cigs that occur will be brief and intermittent. Better
chance for coastal cigs Tuesday evening after 03Z as clouds above
10 kft increase.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
High tides during the late mornings will generate significant
coastal flooding this week. Tides will be anywhere from 1.5 to 1.7
feet above astronomical predictions, likely raising high tides above
8 feet, peaking this morning. A Coastal Flood Warning contains
the details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The coastal waters remain quite warm. The sea surface temperature
of 73.8 on Monday at the Scripps Pier was another record for the
date and around 9 degrees above the long-term average for the
date.

The water level at San Diego during the peak of the high tide
Monday morning of 2.72 feet MHHW (8.44 feet MLLW) appears to the
highest ever recorded at San Diego, exceeding the 2.54 feet MHHW
on July 14th, 2026 and November 25th, 2015. Four of the 10 highest
water levels observed at San Diego have occurred in 2026 since
mid July.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/CLIMATE...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office