991
FXUS66 KLOX 270601
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1101 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...26/1057 PM.

Gradual cooling will continue through the week, with increasing
cloud coverage and a high chance of rain sometime from Friday-
Monday, with highest chances Saturday (Halloween) through Sunday.
Additionally, coastal flooding issues will continue due to very
high tides.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...26/809 PM.

Very quiet weather will continue over the area through Thursday
with minimal weather impacts expected aside from the continual
coastal flooding threat due to very high tides.

The upper pattern will continue feature weak troughing with
gradually decreasing 500 mb heights over the next few days. Weak
onshore flow will likely continue each day as well. Temperatures
will cool each day, bringing the region to generally below
seasonal normals as far as max temps go by Thursday.

Increasing cloud coverage will become common through the week as
well, with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy thanks to the
influx of mid and high level clouds. Mid and high clouds will
become most extensive Wednesday and Thursday. Some coastal areas
may see a return of marine layer clouds over the next couple of
nights, but confidence is fairly low, especially with increasing
higher clouds. However, Wednesday appears to have the better
chance of more widespread low clouds, with low clouds potentially
extending into some coastal valley areas.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...26/230 AM.

On Thursday, slightly cyclonic SW flow develops over Srn CA as
another upper low spins out of British Columbia. It will be a
mostly cloudy day due to a combination of low mid and high clouds.
Due to the extensive cloud cover max temps will flatten out and
almost all areas save for the mid and upper mtn elevations will
see max temps in the upper 60s or lower 70s.

On Friday the flow turns more to the SW and the cyclonic turning
sharpens. The day will most likely resemble Thursday will cloudy
skies and cooler than normal temps (4 to 8 locally 12 degrees
under normal). But there will be a 10 to 20 percent chc of brief
and light shower or two.

All eyes on the next storm system, which unfortunately, remains a
low confidence forecast. One problem comes from timing and
placement of a moisture plume moving in from the SW and the other
is the evolution of the upper low over WA and OR. Until the mdls
settle down and begin to converge on a solution the forecast will
have to be broad brushed. There is very high confidence that it
will rain during the weekend, but low confidence on onset timing
and peak timing. Rainfall amounts are also a low confidence
prediction. The current estimate calls for most areas south of Pt
Conception to recieve about an inch with higher amounts in the
foothills and coastal slopes. Most mdls keep most of the plume to
the south of Pt Conception so areas north of there will probably
see half that amount. There is a 20 to 30 percent chc that
rainfall totals will be double that amount. Stay tuned for
the latest details on this developing storm system.

Snow levels will generally be high, although light snow may occur
at high elevations on the backside of the storm.

Max temps will only be in the mid to upper 60s through the
weekend.

An active weather pattern may continue behind next weekend, with
a 50-60 percent chance of above normal precipitation into the
following week.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0557Z.

At 0457Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in VFR TAFs at KOXR, KCMA, & KSBA. There is a
chance for IFR cigs 12Z-18Z at KSBA (20%), KOXR and KCMA (30%).

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMO, & KLGB. with a
30 percent chc of LIFR cig/vis 11Z-17Z.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSMX and KLAX with 50% chance for no
low clouds.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF from 11Z-18Z, high confidence
otherwise. There is a 40% chance of no low clouds. Cigs may be as
low as BKN006. Any east wind component is expected to remain
below 7 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/843 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Wednesday, high confidence in Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level wind. On Thursday and Friday, there is a
50-60% chance of SCA level winds continuing.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through late tonight SCA level
winds are expected before dropping off. For Tuesday through
Friday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon
and evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the
southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half
of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-60% chance of SCA level
winds in the late afternoon and evening hours tonight and
Tuesday, then again on Friday.

Dense fog is likely to form over portions of the coastal waters
over the next 48 hours, but low confidence on exactly when and
where.

A significant storm system will impact the area sometime in the
late Friday through early next week timeframe. There is a wide
range of outcomes, but there is at least a low threat of a 12-24
hour period of strong winds and step seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 1 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RM/RS
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office