483
FXUS66 KLOX 091043
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
343 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...09/317 AM.

Tropical Cyclone Priscilla may send showers and thunderstorms
into Los Angeles County today into early Friday, along with
elevated humidity. Dry and seasonable weather is expected over the
weekend, followed by chances of rain early next week as a storm
system drops into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/343 AM.

Mositure from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla will reach the region
today, resulting in elevated humidity and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms focused across Los Angeles County, today into early
Friday. The majority of weather activity over the Continental US
due to Priscilla will be the the south and east of the region, as
LA County is on the far western periphery of impacts. Showers and
thunderstorms will become possible late this morning, focused over
the eastern portion of LA County and the coastal waters off the
coast of Orange County. Limited and elevated moisture initially,
will make measurable rain difficult early today, and thus the
greatest risk may be dry lighting and fire starts. This afternoon
and evening, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase,
focused over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains. Tonight into early
Friday, there is a slight chance of shower and thunderstorms
across the majority of LA County and skimming the Ventura County
line.

Rainfall totals are expected to generally be light if any (under
0.25 inches), with just a remote risk (< 5% chance) of any flash
flooding or burn scar debris flows. The highest totals and risk of
flooding will be for the eastern San Gabriel mountains, due to
the higher elevation, thus anyone near the Bridge scar is advised
to pay close attention to weather conditions. Overall however,
most locations across LA County will see little to no rain through
Friday.

For Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, mostly
benign weather is expected, with minimal marine layer stratus and
temperature near or below normal. This weekend, cloud coverage may
trend upwards, especially during the overnight to morning hours.
Additionally, gusty north-northwest winds are expected along
Central Coast, Southwest Santa Barbara County, the I-5 corridor,
and the Antelope Valley, late Friday through Saturday night, with
Wind Advisories possible on Saturday.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/315 AM.

A low pressure storm system will drop down from western Canada
and slide down just off the California coastline on Monday, then
cutting across the state late Tuesday. The exact trajectory of
the low will determine the rainfall totals. Some ensemble members
favor a more westward trajectory of the low over the coastal
waters, which would allow for greater moisture in the storm system
and higher rainfall totals over the SoCal region. Confidence in
some amount of rainfall with this storm is trending upwards with
the latest model runs. There is now around a 70-80% chance of
seeing rain across the entire region, however the highest chance
for rain is still for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties.

The bulk of the rain is likely to fall Monday night through
Tuesday, with lingering rain chances through Wednesday. There is
low confidence in exact rain totals, however there is the
potential for storm total rain as high as 1.5-3 inches for San
Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, and 0.5-1.5 inches for LA
and Ventura Counties. Southwesterly flow may result in some
terrain driven enhances of rain totals for mountain ranges,
especially for the west or south- facing slopes. Alternatively, if
the center of the low travels mostly over land opposed to the
coastal waters, rainfall totals may end up largely under 0.5
inches across the region.

Strong onshore winds and low 500 mb heights will combine with
possible rainfall and cloud cover, to yield a period of well
below normal temperatures and unsettled conditions, Monday
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1019Z.

Around 0730Z, the marine layer depth was around 2000 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 3700 feet with a
temperature near 18 degrees Celsius. There was another inversion
above up to 5000 feet.

Low to moderate confidnece in the current forecast for coastal
terminals and terminals north of Point Conception. High confidence
in the current forecast for Los Angeles County valley and desert
terminals.

There is a low-to-moderate chance of MVFR conditions through 18Z
this morning. The highest chances will be for terminals north of
Point Conception. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight at Los Angeles County terminals. After 03Z
Friday, there is a low- to- moderate chance of LIFR to IFR
conditions, highest for terminals north of Point Conception.

KLAX...There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conditions through
16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a 20 percent chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening. There is a 10 percent chance IFR conditions after 10Z
Friday. Any east winds are likely to remain less than 7 knots, but
there is a less than 5 percent chance of significant easterly
winds due to storm outflow should thunderstorms develop east of
the terminal.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
20 percent chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. No
wind impacts are expected at this time, but there is a less than 5
percent chance of a significant wind impact due to storm outflow.

&&

.MARINE...09/250 AM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, conditions will
very likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through early Friday morning. Local gusts near SCA levels are
possible south of Point Conception this evening. There is an
increasing chance of SCA level winds on Friday with an imminent
(80-100 percent) chance of SCA conditions by Friday afternoon and
lingering through at least early Tuesday. There is a high-to-
likely (50-70 percent) chance of GALES Friday evening through
Saturday evening, highest from the waters near Point Conception
south to San Nicolas Island. At least, widespread SCA conditions
are to be expected between Friday evening and Saturday evening.
Inexperienced boaters should seek or remain in safe harbor during
this period.

Inside the southern California bight, conditions should generally
remain below SCA criteria through Friday afternoon. Local SCA
gusts with choppy seas are possible near Point Dume and across
the San Pedro Channel this evening. There is a high-to-likely
(50-70 percent) chance for SCA level winds Friday and Saturday,
with highest chances across the western portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel. There is low-to-moderate (20-40 percent) chance
of GALES on Saturday afternoon and evening with a high (50
percent) chance of short-period hazardous seas developing across
the Santa Barbara Channel.

Moisture associated with rapidly weakening Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla off the Baja California coast will move north through
today through Friday and bring a slight (10-20 percent) chance of
showers and thunderstorms for the southern coastal waters, highest
from south of Dana Point into the San Pedro Channel adjacent to
Los Angeles and Orange Counties this afternoon through early
Friday morning. Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of
producing locally gale force winds and rough seas, dangerous
lightning, and heavy rainfall with reduced visibility, and even a
waterspout.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday evening through late
      Saturday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Flagstaff Office