824
FXUS66 KLOX 292033
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
133 PM PDT Fri May 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...29/1226 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected into next week, but a return
of low clouds and fog will moderate coastal temperatures. Sunday
and Monday will likely be the warmest with highs 5 to 10 degrees
above normal. Locally gusty north winds over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...29/101 PM.

A cold upper low is finally exiting California setting the stage
for warmer weather ahead. 4-8 degrees of warming Saturday will
bring temperatures back to near normal in most areas, though there
will still be a marine layer presence across many coast and valley
areas in the morning morning hours. The only other weather issue
tomorrow is some gusty northwest winds, along the Central Coast as
well as southwest Santa Barbara County and the Antelope Valley,
but likely below advisory levels.

On Sunday pressure gradients to the east and north will push
temperatures up another few degrees at the coast and as much as 8
degrees higher inland. Generally even in light offshore patterns
forecast highs tend to land in the higher end of the possible
outcomes, especially inland, so forecast highs are a few degrees
above NBM levels during this stretch. With this in mind highs in
the warmer valleys have around a 60-80 percent chance of reaching
the lower 90s by Sunday while intermediate areas between the coast
and valleys (including Downtown LA and interior portions of the
coastal plain) should reach the lower 80s. Coastal areas will
still be influenced by the marine layer, keeping highs there in
the 60s to lower 70s.

For Monday models have been consistent indicating a weakening of
the offshore flow to the east and north. This will lead to either
little change or slight cooling across most coast/valley areas.
However, far interior areas like the Antelope Valley and interior
SLO County will experience a few degrees of warming with highs in
the low to mid 90s. Winds are expected to be lighter as well.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...29/132 PM.

While heights will continue to rise through Tuesday, most of the
models solutions show a baggy trough continuing along the West
coast, maintaining light to moderate onshore flow and keeping
highs withing a few degrees of normal. There is a very small
percentage solutions that swing gradients back to lightly
offshore by Wednesday which would result in additional warming.
And some warming is still the likely outcome for far interior
areas which tend to mirror the height trends more than the
gradients. But for coast and valleys the most likely outcome is
slight cooling, but highs still within a few degrees of normal.
There also will likely still be a marine layer for most coast and
valley areas, which is typical for this time of year.

For the rest of the week just minimal day to day changes with dry
weather and temperatures near normal. However, ensemble gradients
are favoring an increase in onshore flow Thursday and Friday
which would favor at least a minor cooling at least for coast and
valleys, though 500 and 850mb heights are trending up slightly
which would suggest either little change or slight warming for
interior areas.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1737Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of
CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight
minimums off by one category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times
of MVFR CIGs 015 (+/- 300ft) could be off +/- 2 hours from
current forecast. There is a 15% chance east wind component
reaches 7-8 kts from 09Z-14Z Saturday.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance MVFR
CIGs do not develop from 08Z-15Z Sat. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...29/717 AM.

High confidence in conditions staying below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) through early this afternoon, with a long period northwest
swell and short period west wind swell. High confidence in SCA
conditions expanding through the weekend.

For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island,
at least SCA conditions likely starting Friday afternoon and
lasting for the foreseeable future. Chances for Gales as well,
Friday Night (20%), Saturday Night (50%) and Wednesday Night
(60%). The nearshore waters likely to see SCA conditions each
afternoon and evening through Saturday.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conditions are likely for the
western portion through Saturday. For all other waters, SCA
conditions unlikely through at least early next week, but choppy
seas are likely each afternoon and evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RK/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office